Local elections in Lisbon. Carlos and Alexandra run for election in the "factory" of prime ministers and presidents

Lisbon City Hall is recognized as a cradle of national leaders , with two prime ministers and a president of the Republic having held the seat of power in Praça do Município since 1989, before rising to the highest positions in national politics. This year, the main figures are Alexandra Leitão, former minister and until a few months ago number two in the national Socialist Party, and the current mayor of Lisbon, a surprising winner in 2021 , interrupting a winning streak initiated by Mayor António Costa.

The current situation, with two blocs forming to win the city council, takes us back to 1989. That year, and without knowing it yet, Lisbon residents had two future heads of state on their ballot, with Jorge Sampaio defeating Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa , who not even a dip in the Tagus could make end up in Praça do Município.

Sampaio's victory after a decade of power by the CDS and PSD under the leadership of the Christian Democrat Nuno Krus Abecassis (whom Carlos Moedas did not forget to mention in his presentation held this Wednesday, calling him "unforgettable") was made possible by an unexpected alliance on the left with the PCP , which preceded by 26 years the "geringonça" created by another of Lisbon's historic mayors, António Costa.

Thirty-six years ago, the PS, PCP, PEV, and MDP/CDE, who ran together, received 181,000 votes. On the other side, the coalition of Marcelo's PSD, CDS, and PPM received only 155,000 votes. Of the 17 councilors in Lisbon, Sampaio won 9/8. Four years earlier, in Krus Abecassis's final victory, the PSD had 177,439 votes, the APU 109,013, and the PS, fresh from its first legislative defeat to Cavaco Silva two months earlier, received 71,275 votes. Combined, the PS and PCP could have defeated the right by 2,800 votes, and that was what Sampaio realized in 1985 and carried into 1989.

Only the political skill of the socialist, in attracting a fierce rival to the PS – the PCP of Álvaro Cunhal (secretary-general who would give his place to Carlos Carvalhas during that municipal mandate –, allowed him to get the better of the right in 1989. Lisbon, in those initial years of the country's membership in the EEC (precursor of the European Union) was already very different from that of 1976, when the CDS had around 85 thousand votes, more than the 68 thousand of the PPD-PSD.

In a leftist party with diverse forces, the most popular candidates were FEUP (predecessor of the APU and later the CDU), which brought together the PCP, MDP/CDE, and the Popular Socialist Front (a split from Soares's PS), and the Socialist Party. The former garnered 92,000 votes, while the PS garnered 158,000 Lisbon residents. The capital was clearly left-leaning.

But going back to 1989, it is this bloc dynamic that is now being repeated in Lisbon, if it is confirmed, as several socialists are certain, that there will be a left-wing coalition on the ballot papers on October 12th .

What must be carefully measured, weighed, and even held accountable is if, on election night, the Socialist Party, in a progressive coalition that exists for the city, fails to win the elections by the vote difference corresponding to the votes for the PCP—that is, if the PCP's votes, combined with the votes of a progressive left-wing coalition, were enough to take the council from the right—left-wing voters will have to know how to draw the consequences and conclusions from this matter.

On one side, the team led by the current president, Carlos Moedas, in a front with PSD, CDS and Iniciativa Liberal, presented this Wednesday, at an event held at Estufa Fria and which was not absent from Luís Montenegro, whom Moedas never addressed as leader of the PSD, but rather as Prime Minister.

On the other side, the left-wing front led by Socialist Alexandra Leitão, uniting the Socialist Party (PS), Livre, Bloco de Esquerda (Left Bloc), and PAN (National PAN). Although not yet official, it is already a coalition within the Lisbon Socialist Party, and this was not denied by the Socialist municipal coordinator in an interview with ECO/Local Online this month.

In it, André Rijo leaves a message to João Ferreira, the communist who has managed to maintain his party's strength in the capital. "What should be carefully measured, weighed, and even held accountable is if, on election night, the Socialist Party, in a progressive coalition that exists for the city, fails to win the elections by the vote difference corresponding to the PCP's votes—that is, if the PCP's votes, combined with those of a progressive left-wing coalition, were enough to take the city council from the right—left-wing voters will have to learn to draw the consequences and conclusions from this matter."

In the same interview, the head of the PS's municipal coordination believes that, in local government in general, incumbents have an advantage . Therefore, and signaling this principle, he says that Carlos Moedas has an advantage over Alexandra Leitão .

Chega's social housing and the PCP in opposition to the "contraption"

While the so-called democratic right is united and leaving Chega alone, the left seems certain to advance almost unanimously, with the PCP still missing. What capacity does a growing Chega party have to win votes from both sides, while on the other side, a PCP that has been losing its electoral base? But, it should be noted, in the scenario of a left-wing front without its endorsement, it will be the only party in this political spectrum to offer left-wing voters an alternative. Two questions to clarify on October 12th.

For these elections, Alexandra Leitão's PS believes that Moedas' coalition fears the strength gained by Chega in the city's so-called social neighborhoods , and that in the legislative elections, as highlighted to ECO/Local Online by a socialist parish council president, it meant the victory of Ventura's party in the parish of Marvila with practically double the result of the PSD.

Marvila has a unique characteristic: it is home to a dozen so-called social housing neighborhoods . Perhaps for this reason, Moedas was so vocal in his candidacy presentation speech, which omitted references to Novos Tempos, the 2021 winners, and instead emphasized "For you, Lisbon." On the other side of the city, in the Boavista neighborhood, Chega prevailed in all three polling stations.

For these local elections, Chega chose not to propose a member of the national Parliament to Lisbon residents, unlike what it did in Sintra, Amadora, and Seixal, for example . In the capital, it prefers to run with a municipal deputy, Bruno Mascarenhas, elected in 2021 to the Lisbon Municipal Assembly, in a candidacy led by television presenter Nuno Graciano (who passed away in 2023), whom Ventura often crossed paths with in the corridors of Correio da Manhã during his time as a football commentator.

With Graciano, Chega would only get 10,713 votes, below the BE's 15,054 votes and the PCP-PEV's 25,520. And far below the PS-Livre's 80,869 votes and the right-wing coalition's 83,163 votes, electing Moedas as mayor by a meager 2,294 votes, out of a total of 243,000 Lisbon residents who cast ballots.

The PCP, whose 2021 votes, added to Medina's, would have been worth a comfortable left-wing government in the chamber – in local authorities there is no possibility of coalitions a posteriori and whoever has the most votes wins – repeats the name of councilor João Ferreira, who, as is public and ECO/Local Online confirmed with socialist sources, categorically refuses to align himself with a local government version of the 2015 "contraption" .

However, at least at the national level, the PCP of 2021 is not really the same as the PCP of 2025, and this could mean that the forces of the expected left-wing coalition absorb part of this electorate. Since 2021, the country has experienced three legislative elections of continuous decline for the communists, accelerated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In 2019, the PCP elected 12 deputies for São Bento, in 2022, with the war already underway, it fell by half, dropped to four in 2024 and after the elections of May 18th it has three, a quarter of the seats it held in Parliament when João Ferreira was elected for the current municipal mandate, with the best municipal result of the communists since 2005.

Long knives on October 12th

But even without the PCP in the coalition, 2021 data points to a potential for a night of long battles at the PS and PSD campaign headquarters on October 12th : if Carlos, from Beja, loses, it will be the second consecutive time that the incumbent in Lisbon has lost. Moedas, who appeared at Estufa Fria this Wednesday, was not shy in criticizing his opponents.

Unsurprisingly, Alexandra Leitão received the most scathing attack, and Moedas even ventured to issue a challenge "to all moderate socialists who know that in me they have a safe haven." Although the recipient's name was not mentioned, for those who understand, a single sentence was enough: "The radicalism that has already managed to undermine a large part of the Socialist Party and has done so much harm to the country, and now they want to bring this failed model to our Lisbon."

Still in the calculations expected for October 12th, if Lisbon native Alexandra fails to defeat the right, many Socialists will question, perhaps even more than her performance, the choice of Pedro Nuno Santos, then party leader and still a member of parliament in São Bento. Marta Temido, who was allegedly favored by the Socialist polls for 2025, fell by the wayside.

Lisbon is being poorly governed by the PSD and the current mayor. The PS had to make its biggest bet. Alexandra Leitão is the parliamentary leader of the PS and the most important figure in the PS after me and the president.

In October 2023, the former Minister of Health, a "star" in the fight against the pandemic, appeared in an interview with Expresso following her election as mayor of Lisbon. There, she was identified as the person responsible for preparing the program for the local elections on October 12th. When asked if she would like to lead the municipality, she was emphatic: "I would like to be mayor! "

And furthermore, when asked if she could be a candidate: “If that is important for Lisbon and for the people of Lisbon, yes, I will clearly be present and will not turn my back on difficulties and the fight for a project.”

As is well known, on June 9, 2024, Temido headed to another European capital, Brussels, leading the Socialist delegation that defeated the Social Democrats by less than 40,000 votes, in revenge for Montenegro's still-fresh and equally "narrow" victory over Pedro Nuno Santos. This victory effectively deprived Moedas of a potential run for the national PSD.

As for Lisbon, Pedro Nuno opted for his right-hand woman and explained why at the candidate's presentation in January, before any coalition had been announced : "Lisbon is being poorly governed by the PSD and the current mayor. The PS had to make its biggest bet. Alexandra Leitão is the parliamentary leader of the PS and the most important figure in the PS after me and the president."

Pedro Nuno continued: " What's clear to us is that, from the left to the right, the idea that Carlos Moedas is working well on his image but failing to solve problems for Lisbon residents is becoming very prevalent . Alexandra Leitão's choice is due to her profile, the political standing she has gained over the past few years in Portugal, representing the Socialist Party (PS), her level of achievement and accomplishment, and which offers us the possibility of running for the Lisbon City Council."

Coins with IL, Leitão close to joining BE

In 2021, the Lisbon residents' ballot paper included Fernando Medina (PS/Livre) and Carlos Moedas (PSD/CDS-PP/Alliance/PPM/MPT), as well as Beatriz Gomes Dias (BE), Bruno Fialho (PDR), Bruno Horta Soares (Liberal Initiative), João Ferreira (PCP), João Patrocínio (Ergue-te), Manuela Gonzaga (PAN), Nuno Graciano (Chega), Ossanda Líber (We Are All Lisbon), Sofia Afonso Ferreira (We, Citizens!) and Tiago Matos Gomes (Volt).

When presenting Fialho's candidacy, the president of IL, João Cotrim Figueiredo, said, regarding the non-adherence to the coalition led by Moedas, that he believed that the liberals would be "capable of taking more votes from the left, from the Socialist Party and from Fernando Medina by going alone, than by being integrated into an electoral front that will end up dominated by the parties that comprise it."

A view that Mariana Leitão, the current leader, does not share. In an interview published by Lusa this Saturday , the newly elected IL president noted her expectation of being present in municipal executives through the coalitions she will form with the PSD and CDS, particularly in Lisbon and Porto.

As for the Left Bloc, the same uncertainty applies to the PCP, but with an even deeper question mark, proportional to the crisis evident in the last legislative elections. During the 2021 local elections, there were 19 Left Bloc deputies in the Assembly of the Republic. By 2025, Mariana Mortágua remains.

In Lisbon, in the 2019 legislative elections, the Left Bloc (BE) won 26,619 voters, well above the city's municipal results over the past century. In the 2021 mayoral election, it won 15,000, highlighting the Lisbonites' superior support for the Left Bloc in legislative elections.

By May 18, the party's electoral base in the municipality had shrunk to 8,500 votes, about a third of what it had obtained in 2019. In a simple mathematical exercise, the Left Bloc (BE) would not surpass 5,000 votes in a similar proportion. In 2021, even the PAN (Brazilian National Party), also expected to be part of this left-wing front, performed better.